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The size of each market box represents each market’s size by population for economic heat maps. The metros are aggregated together by region; the combined size of each regional box representing the relative size of each region, enabling an at-a-glance take on regional conditions.
The arrows represent how each market is trending according to our most recent quarterly analysis. An upward arrow denotes an improved rating, a bar means the market is unchanged, while a down arrow signifies deterioration.
These represent the current and five-year projected strength of each market.
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CONTACT US
SitusAMC’s Insights group provides comprehensive data, analytics, and research solutions to help power more informed real estate decision making. To find out more, contact Peter Muoio.
PETER MUOIO, PhD
Head of SitusAMC Insights
PeterMuoio@SitusAMC.com
Our Insights Heat Map provides a visualization of the current condition and outlook for market economies and property segments. The visualization helps discern market-specific conditions, regional and market size variations, and the direction of momentum.
A Wind in Southern Sails
Gateway Uptick
Our quarterly Heat Map analysis found that many markets remained unchanged at the end of 2021 as cheap money began to wane and stimulus faded. While much of the Sun Belt and some of the country's largest cities improved, most markets were unchanged over the quarter. The overall Current Momentum rating – an average of all markets that gauges current and forecasted near-term growth – improved from 2.5 to 2.2 (on a scale of 1 indicating robust conditions and 6 signaling a weak economy). The pace of fourth quarter growth was the same as the previous quarter. Of the 50 markets included in our Current Momentum Heat Map, 18 improved (the same as third quarter) and 33 stayed the same. Unlike the third quarter, where much of the improvement was out West, fourth quarter improvements were evenly distributed around the country. One continuing trend is the narrowing gap between Western markets (average rating 1.8) and Southwestern and Southeastern markets (average rating of 1 and 1.7, respectively). Markets in the Northeast and Midwest are much weaker, with an average rating of 3.4 and 3.3, respectively.
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Current Momentum
Heat Map Insights 4Q 2021
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TAKEAWAYS
Stagnation Elsewhere
All Southwest markets and all but five Southeast markets registered a 1, the highest rating for Current Momentum. Of those markets that did not garner the top rating, two improved and two others remain at the second-highest rating of 2. The overall dominance of the Sun Belt region is evident in its average rating of 1.5 across all markets. All Texas markets now have a 1 rating, as well as all Florida markets except Miami.
Of the five main gateway markets, New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., three improved. Still, none are in the highest tier, though New York City and San Francisco both reached a rating of 2. There was also improvement in the suburban areas of these dense urban metros: Oakland-East Bay; Riverside-San Bernardino; Northern Virginia; and Suburban Maryland.
Much of the Midwest, West and Northeast, outside of major metros, remained steady QoQ. Though much of the Heat Map is green, indicating a generally positive outlook, the improvement we have seen in recent quarters, as the nation emerged from the pandemic, has tapered off.
VIEW HEAT MAP
Our quarterly Heat Map analysis found that many markets remained unchanged at the end of 2021 as cheap money began to wane and stimulus faded. While much of the Sun Belt and some of the country's largest cities improved, most markets were unchanged over the quarter. The overall Current Momentum rating – an average of all markets that gauges current and forecasted near-term growth – improved from 2.5 to 2.2 (on a scale of 1 indicating robust conditions and 6 signaling a weak economy). The pace of fourth quarter growth was the same as the previous quarter. Of the 50 markets included in our Current Momentum Heat Map, 18 improved (the same as third quarter) and 33 stayed the same. Unlike the third quarter, where much of the improvement was out West, fourth quarter improvements were evenly distributed around the country. One continuing trend is the narrowing gap between Western markets (average rating 1.8) and Southwestern and Southeastern markets (average rating of 1 and 1.7, respectively). Markets in the Northeast and Midwest are much weaker, with an average rating of 3.4 and 3.3, respectively.
Current Momentum
Current Momentum Heat Map Insights
4Q 2021
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